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Winning the pensions battle

Writer's picture: Matthew WarrenMatthew Warren

Photo credit: Jérémy-Günther-Heinz Jähnick


As the long battle over pension reform grinds on, there seem to be few winners. The government has passed its legislation (depending on the verdict of the Constitutional Court on 14 April) yet it will be a hollow victory. Opposition and union efforts to force the government to back down show little sign of bearing fruit so far.


The only winner at the moment seems to be Marine Le Pen, whose strategy is paying off according to two polls just out.


A poll for Le Figaro and Sud Radio asks voters who they would vote for in a presidential election, with Marine Le Pen facing off against a number of different candidates. Remember that Emmanuel Macron won't be able to stand again as the presidency is limited to two terms. Le Pen comfortably beats everyone in the field. Depending on who she's up against, her scores range from 29% (with former prime minister Edouard Philippe coming next on 26%) to 36% (with La France Insoumise leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon coming next on 20%). There's a full link to the story here.


A second poll by BFMTV asked people how they would vote in a rerun of the 2022 second round vote between Macron and Le Pen. In April 2022, Macron won that bout 58.5% to 41.5%. If the race were run today, the result would be a Le Pen victory of 55% to 45%.


Marine Le Pen and the Rassemblement National have been opposed to the reform but have taken care not to play a large role in the strikes and protests, thus hoping to position themselves as a responsible party of opposition.


In this interview with BFMTV in late March, she made clear her support for peaceful demonstration but added "you won't find me on the side of those who want to sow violence across the country." In the same interview, she accuses the government of "playing with matches in a petrol station".


Thus, by portraying those on the left as trouble makers and those in the government as irresponsible, she is trying to position the RN approach as one of reason and security. Will voters continue to give her the benefit of the doubt once this period of turbulence is over?


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